NGX Daily Market Summary – Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Market Overview

The Nigerian equities market ground to a virtual standstill today, with the NGX All Share Index (ASI) parking at 147,717.23, nearly unchanged (0.00%). YTD returns hold at a robust 43.16%, underscoring a resilient underlying uptrend despite a stagnant session. Activity levels, however, told a different, more vibrant story: market turnover surged by 58.03% to ₦17.32B and total volume ballooned to 495M shares, up over 27% from the prior day. Today's action was marked by a mixed breath (advancers vs. decliners ratio of 0.78x), with sector and stock-specific volatility dictating direction.

• Top gainer: VETIVA S & P NIGERIA SOVEREIGN BOND ETF (VSPBONDETF) up 14.29% at ₦240.00
• Top loser: GREENWICH ASSET ETF (GREENWETF) down 9.09% at ₦360.00

Market Breadth & Volume Trends

• Market breadth: Weak at 0.78x (28 advancers, 36 decliners), indicating moderate downward bias despite flat index close.
  • Volume traded increased for 67 companies, while 71 saw decreased volumes, confirming selective interest.
• Turnover spike: 58.03% jump in total value traded to ₦17.32B signals institutional re-engagement or large block trades.
• Unusual volume: Notable surges seen in TANTALIZER (+648.60%), WAPCO (+229.57%), CHAMS (+113.81%), and MTNN (+120.42%) versus respective 90-day averages, reflecting sector-rotational plays and possible liquidity hunts.

Highlights – Top 5 Gainers & Losers

• ETF volatility: ETFs (VSPBONDETF and GREENWETF) are dominating both top gainers and losers today—suggesting underlying fixed income or liquidity shifts.
• Insurance names: REGALINS, PRESTIGE, and WAPIC feature among gainers, pointing to sectorwide flows.
• Losers: AUSTINLAZ and DEAPCAP see above-average losses with no significant deterioration in RSI, suggesting potential reversal zones if fresh buyers emerge.

Key Insights and Predictions

• Turnover increase: The sharp rise in turnover, primarily concentrated in a few large, institutionally traded names (e.g., DANGCEM, MTNN, ZENITHBANK), hints at strategic positioning, possibly ahead of earnings or macro events. Sustained high turnover may lift volatility and provide trading opportunities if confirmed by consequent price action.
• Breadth divergence: Despite the flat index, more decliners than advancers and mixed individual stock volumes hint at hidden distribution, particularly outside today's top institutional flows.
• Unusual volumes:
  • TANTALIZER traded volume up nearly +649% vs 90-day average, yet price ticked down only -0.85% — suggests aggressive supply absorption; watch for directional break soon.
  • WAPCO (+229%) and CHAMS (+114%) both saw strong volume and mild negative price action, signaling possible institutional rotations rather than panic selling.
  • MTNN pulling in >5M shares at flat pricing (120% above average volume), a clue that big block trades are being absorbed without price impact (potential underlying support).
• YTD Gainers/Laggards:
  

  Top 5 YTD Gainers	YTD Return
  SOVRENINS	186.18%
  CUSTODIAN	157.31%
  TRIPPLEG	142.22%
  COMPUTER WAREHOUSE GROUP (CWG)	152.35%
  STANBIC	98.28%

  
  

  Top 5 YTD Losers	YTD Return
  REGALINS	-4.52%
  STERLINGNG	-1.91%
  MEYER	-9.85%
  NEWGOLD ETF	-10.17%
  TIP	-7.53%

  • SOVRENINS, CUSTODIAN, TRIPPLEG – outstanding multi-month momentum; yet only CUSTODIAN and SOVRENINS show healthy RSI—no overbought signals (ranging 50s–60s).
  • REGALINS – YTD loser but among today's top gainers, possibly short covering or bounce attempt.
• Bullish and Bearish Momentum:
  • Bullish crossovers (above 15DMA): PRESTIGE, CUSTODIAN, JAPAULGOLD.
    • CUSTODIAN is compelling: robust YTD gain (157.31%), above its 15DMA, and strong dividend yield. RSI at a comfortable neutral. Suggests trend continuation.
  • Bearish crossovers (below 15DMA): BERGER, CAVERTON, DEAPCAP, FIDSON, AUSTINLAZ, TIP, DANGSUGAR, UCAP, FCMB, ROYALEX, MBENEFIT, LINKASSURE, LIVESTOCK.
    • Berger and Fidson are notable: significant price declines, both with RSI above 50 – room for further downside unless sharp reversal appears shortly.
    • FIDSON experienced a steep drop (-6.67% today), below 15DMA and MACD approaching potential bearish signal.
• RSI - Overbought/Oversold: None of the immediate top movers show extreme RSI values (i.e., >70 or <30), indicating further move potential both ways, with few imminent mean-reversion threats.
• Divergences: Several stocks in both gainers and losers lists are also in the YTD weakest/strongest tables, indicating short-term reversals or mean-reversion attempts (e.g., REGALINS).

Contrarian Signals

• REGALINS: Despite being among the top YTD losers (-4.52% YTD), it posted a strong rebound today (+8.82%). RSI climbs, though still below 50—suggests potential for a multi-day rally if buying persists.
• GREENWETF: Delivered both high momentum (RSI 64.9) and dramatic price swings (+9% today, but also in losers table recently). MACD highly positive, but volatility up, so caution advised—momentum works until it doesn’t, watch for reversal triggers.
• AUSTINLAZ, FIDSON, CAVERTON, BERGER: All experienced sharp declines despite middle-of-the-road RSI readings and no extreme MACD levels—one or more of these may soon see bottom fishers test the lows.

Sector Heatmaps & Institutional Activity

• Institutional flows: Highest in DANGCEM, ZENITHBANK (over 20% institutional value share), MTNN, ACCESSCORP, and ARADEL. These names dominate total trade value and volume for the day.
• Retail hotspots: UBA, ACCESSCORP, and GTCO led in retail activity, revealing retail's preference for liquid, well-known banks.

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Playbook

• Defensive positioning: Names like AFRIPRUD and REGALINS present low-beta, high-yield profiles for risk-averse investors.
• Caveat: Some high yields (REGALINS, MBENEFIT) are linked to volatile earnings or weak price trends—monitor dividend sustainability.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% of institutional trade value share—reflects strong buy or rotation-in by large players; signals short-term support or pre-positioning ahead of potential market events or results.
• DANGCEM and MTNN: Multiple block trades, nearly all via institutional books. May provide liquidity for index trackers and suggest underlying confidence in these bellwethers.

High Dividend Yield & Momentum Crossovers

• CUSTODIAN: Positive crossover above 15DMA, high YTD gain, decent dividend yield. Suitable for both growth and income-focused investors.
• FCMB: Despite high dividend yield (5.62%), crosses below the 15DMA with bearish momentum; avoid fresh positions until reversal signaled.

Trading Playbook & Cautions

• Focus on Insurance and Building Materials sectors for short-term upswings based on broad participation and positive momentum (especially PRESTIGE, CUSTODIAN).
• Closely monitor unusually high-volume stocks such as TANTALIZER and MTNN for breakout or support-failure setups.
• Watch YTD laggards posting gains (e.g., REGALINS) for mean-reversion plays, but mind stop-loss levels given historical underperformance.
• Caution on bearish crossovers (e.g., BERGER, FIDSON, AUSTINLAZ): if downtrends persist, short-term trading only.

Top 5 YTD Gainers and Losers (YTD % Change)

Market Activity & Trade Summaries

• Institutional dominance: Institutions accounted for 89.41% of trade value and 66.48% of volumes, but only 39.30% of trade count—signaling bigger ticket block activity and potential portfolio rebalancing.
• Retail prevalence: 60.7% of trades (by count) but only 10.6% of value; continued retail preference for highly liquid, low-priced banking stocks (UBA, ACCESSCORP, MTNN, ZENITHBANK, GTCO).

• Patterns: Top names (MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK) are repeated in both retail and institutional top 5—consensus trades, potential for sharp moves if sentiment reverses.
• Sectoral conclusion: Institutional flows focus on heavyweights and index names, retail chases liquidity and recent momentum.

Summary & Takeaways

• Short-term traders: Look for breakouts in high-volume, high-momentum stocks (TANTALIZER, WAPCO, MTNN). Lean into insurance sector.
• Medium-term investors: Stay with sector leaders showing bullish crossovers, but rebalance away from names experiencing persistent bearish momentum.
• Contrarians: REGALINS and other bounce-back laggards may offer high-reward entries, cautiously.
• Defensives: Focus on high-yield, low-beta names for capital protection, but verify dividend sustainability.
• Institutional watch: Heavy clustering (ZENITHBANK, MTNN, DANGCEM) may prelude sharp moves if supported by news/earnings.